The lack of blue on the new long range forecast maps might have skiers and snowboarders feeling a bit blue.
The new monthly 90-day forecasts from NOAA were recently issued and in a change from their forecasts issued this past spring and summer, the Pacific Northwest is no longer being given better-than-average chances of having cooler, wetter conditions this winter.
For that, we can blame the lack of La Nina. Coming off the record-tying El Nino last winter, indications were that the waters in the Central Pacific Ocean were cooling rapidly and were going to shift to the opposite La Nina effect. There's precedent for this: Some of the previously record strong El Ninos shifted to very strong La Ninas in the following years. In fact, the record 1997-98 El Nino we just tied went into a multi-year La Nina. Seattle would go from 1998-2000 without hitting 90 those summers and the winter of 1998-99 set a world record at Mt. Baker for seasonal snowfall.
La Nina winters are frequently marked by cooler and wetter than normal conditions and in turn, typically have very healthy mountain snowpacks.
But this year, while those waters did cool, they didn't cool as much as expected, and now instead of reaching La Nina criteria, forecast models show they'll come up just short, leaving us in what's called "neutral" year where ocean temperatures in the Central Pacific are closer to normal.
"Neutral" years tend to run the gamut in the winter, with neither a warming pull from El Nino nor a cooling pull from La Nina. Traditionally, neutral years have had occasionally strong-stormy weather, but as an overall warm/cold trend, there isn't one.
Knowing this, the long rang forecasters have pulled back their cooling forecast and instead have gone with blank blobs over us, meaning equal chances of warm/cold.
It's a stark change from what those maps looked like in January.
But still, it's not a death knell for the ski season by any stretch, it's just we bring down the odds of an above-average ski season from what was probably looking like about 65/35 in favor to closer to 50/50.
What about autumn?
The maps are starting to trend stronger toward continuing our four-year warm weather trend, especially October which is now painted in a fairly high confidence shade of brown that the month overall will end up warmer than normal and the autumn in general is leaning a bit warm:
And of course, "The Blob" is back and still offshore, giving us a warm pool of waters to give us extra warmth, also likely adding to the boosted warmth forecast:
Note than when those maps mean "above normal," the forecasters are giving giving odds of the average temperature being at least about a half degree above average or more. That doesn't sound like much but a month will be noticeably warm even if it's 1 or 1.5 degrees above normal by average temperatures.
So, this new forecast means I'm just free to toss all my snow shovels, tire chains, and snowmen's top hats in the donation bin?
No! It can still snow this winter -- yes, even in Seattle. The odds of it have taken a ding, but it's still nowhere near zero chance. You still need to be prepared. Some big Seattle snows have occurred in borderline La Nina neutral years. (Besides, who else is going to wear a top hat anyway?)
Conversely, it doesn't mean it'll be 75 degrees this autumn and 65 in January -- just maybe more days warmer than we'd expect for that date. Or, like how much of the past four years have gone...
Speaking of which, if you didn't notice on those long range maps above, the forecasts for next summer are starting to lean that 2017 will be the fifth in a row to be warmer than normal.
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